CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth, Dawn)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-04T23:06:57Z
## Message ID: 20241004-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20241004-AL-001) now simulated with the CME with ID 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001.  

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined front of the two CMEs may affect Dawn (glancing blow), Mars, STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Mars at 2024-10-07T13:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-06T07:57Z, while the flank of the 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001 will reach Dawn at 2024-10-16T13:00Z and the flank of the 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001 CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-07T04:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. The combined front of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T19:18Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
   

CME parameters are:

1: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-03T20:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~646 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 51/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001


2: C-type CME with the start time 2024-10-04T04:13Z.

Estimated speed: ~832 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 22/-19 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001, 2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241004_015800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif


## Notes: 
The CME with ID 2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.7 flare from Active Region 13843 (S10W47) with ID 2024-10-03T20:09:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T20:28Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-005, 20241003-AL-006).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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